Status: Tags: Links: Rationality
Decision-Making
In order to have the best life possible, you have to:
- Know what the best decisions are and
- Have the courage to make them
Principles
- The outcomes of our decisions are a mix of luck and skill
- ex) Losing weight would be a mix of skill (diet and exercise) and genetics/famine (luck)
- When making decisions in competition, we are betting against our other possible options rather than the enemy’s decisions
- Our Beliefs have great influence on our decision-making
- We can either save time or save accuracy when making decisions
- Making a decision results in Opportunity Cost
- Our goal is to make systematic and repeatable decisions that can be taught to others
Dangers
- Tilt and harsh Emotions can negatively influence our decisions
- The more time we spend making decisions, the unhappier we will be
Cultivation
- Reflection of previous decisions
- Objectivity and understanding of reality
- Synthesizing
Connections
- Part of Feedback Loops
Types of Decisions
Ideas
- Gain Experience
- Uncertainty
- Irrationality
- Open-Mindedness
- Dealing with Failure
- Abstract Beliefs
- Temporal Discounting
- Luck vs Skill
Practices
- Skepticism
- Decision-Making Questions
- Have a solid process for making decisions, and conduct multiple experiments to have sample data
- Scenario Planning
- Calculating Probability
- 10 10 10 Rule
- Decision-Making Tools
- Educated Guesses
- Precise Estimates
- De Bono Thinking Approach
Dangers
References: How to Decide - Thinking in Bets