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Status: Tags: Links: Scenario Planning

Hindsight Bias

Man: I heard you talking on the phone. I love your accent. Are you Italian? Woman: No, I’m Greek. Man: I knew it!

• Record all the information we had during different parts of decision making

Downsides

• Distorts our memory of what we thought about the decision prior to making it
• Memory Creep

Metaphorical Description

• Time is a tree; the trunk is our past, and the branches are our potential futures
  • Thicker branches are more probable
    • With hindsight bias, when a future is chosen, the rest get cut of and we focus solely on the lone branch
    • It’s important to reconstruct the tree and evaluate the other outcomes

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