Status: Tags: Links: Precise Estimates
Probability Ranges
Principles
- Based on the amount of knowledge we have (none vs all)
- You should be shocked if the probability range was off
- You should shoot for a 9/10 chance that your guess is right
Benefits
- The range of our probabilities shows how uncertain we are of our guesses
- Encourages other people to provide their own opinions/correct us
References: