Status: Tags: Links: Rationality
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is when we map out and consider all scenarios/outcomes of a decision
If you have a 10% chance of winning $500, you could estimate it to be $50 earned
Principles
- When the outcome is unknown, we can only base our inferred probability on the decisions
Benefits
- Prevents hindsight bias
- Acknowledges uncertainty
- Encourages preparedness
- Helps us understand the probabilities of each outcome, and the protocol for each outcome
- Incentivises accuracy and prioritization
Practices
- Ulysses Contract
- Back-Casting
- Premortems
- Not partaking in Hindsight Bias
References: