Status: Tags: Links: Thinking in Bets
Application
Personal Revelations
- I should be more conscious of the the idea that bad outcomes do not mean bad decisions
- There is a LOT of undiscovered information that we fail to recognize, which can have large influences on our decisions
- It’s interesting to see how the author is able to connect different ideas into the decision making process
Author’s Purpose
- The author wants to share their framework of how decision-making works, and it was very effective
- The outcomes of our decisions are uncertain, so we should understand this idea and incorporate it by considering the different outcomes and learning from our mistakes to further mitigate miscalculations in our future decisions
- It built upon common sense and applied practices and intricate principles to further support the ideas
Future Plans
- Decision swear jar
- 10 10 10 rule
- Scenario planning
- Back-casting, premortems
Important Ideas
- Don’t have bias
- Don’t shoot the messenger or the message
- Disengage yourself when tilting
- Looking at events from the future can help us be more rational
- Instead of measuring our success with others, we can measure our process with others
- If the outcome is intended for long-term, why the fuck should we care about the short-term outcomes
- We should view our happiness as long-term and sustainable to help mitigate the effect of short-term bad events
References: